Market euphoria? Beware, we may be entering recession. The US has been adding about $1T in national debt every 100 days since February of 2024– crisis spending, supposedly during economic expansion. What happens when that spending is reduced? The massive wins by Regan and Clinton occurred with a -2% weekly wage growth, during a technical recession. We have the same -2% weekly wage growth now – from an administration that revises their reported statistics down consistently. We are likely in recession now. The only indicator with near perfect accuracy in predicting a recession is the inverted yield curve. We have just ‘un-inverted” from one of the longest and deepest inversions in history. And recessions begin when the inverted yield curve un-inverts.
Economic Trends and Their Impact on Deal Activity
Recently, Tom DeMark, an award-winning technical analyst indicated his wariness as to market conditions and his belief that a top is likely imminent, as featured in a MarketWatch article. DeMark advises investors including Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman and Steven A. Cohen.
On our recent Broker Advisory Board call, our leaders in real estate securities, alternative fund distribution, M&A, and Pre-IPO stock trading, expressed some improvement in deal activity. In our previous meeting, the team forecast a very weak October leading up to the elections – and that transpired, representing the weakest month for FNEX YTD. November rebounded and the Board forecasts a slight improvement in deal activity as we move into Q1 2025, representing a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
Ready to explore opportunities in the Pre-IPO market, alternative investments, or M&A?
Partner with FNEX to navigate these dynamic markets with confidence. Contact us today to learn how our investment banking expertise can support your growth strategies.
