Wow, that was unexpected. Macro indicators look stretched, public P/E multiples are off the charts, equities breadth is very thin, and here at FNEX we think the public markets are looking toppy. That said, our Broker Advisory Board Meeting projected a very strong finish to the year, and beginning of 2026, across all business sectors.
If you have read this Newsletter before, you will know we have a quarterly call with leaders of our 140+ brokers and bankers, representing broad market exposure to retail products, private equity, real estate and venture capital. With over $1.7B in notional transactions completed thus far in 2025, we have pretty good visibility. Looking back, this group’s ability to accurately forecast two forward quarters has been spot on.
In our most recent call, here are the highlights:
(1) The retail and wealth management sector continues to primarily focus on bond, yield and coupon-related products, anticipating an interest rate drop, but there is more of a “risk on” appetite than has been seen in the last twelve months. Although we think the public markets are topping, the retail investor sentiment is strong.
(2) Private Equity is active. Valuations and multiples are up, and volume is up over 100% from last year. More firms are under pressure to deploy capital, and deal making is projected to remain strong into the first quarter of 2026.
(3) The venture market, focusing around late-stage offerings and trading, is also markedly up in transaction volume, doubling last year. This market, however, has stayed very narrow from a sector perspective with Defense, Space and AI dominating the capital flow. We still see many asset managers’ portfolios stuck with zombie companies, unable to raise capital, trade, or participate in secondary transactions in verticals outside the aforementioned.
(4) Our teams focused on real estate believe activity will increase throughout the end of the year into 2026 and remain optimistic. Clearly, demand is pent up and waiting on clarification around rates—anticipating a drop. If rates begin to move lower, transaction volume should increase.
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